Ranking the Top 25 Teams in College Baseball Following a Hectic Weekend
In the first season of the Baseball Focus College Baseball Top 25, I have found that I should have never envied the position of top 25 committees across all college sports. If baseball wasn’t hard enough to rank teams week-to-week based on a four-game sample, a gauntlet like week 7 comes along in which multiple top 25 teams get swept and others lose series to lesser opponents. Only five different teams come into the updated top 25 at the same spot they were in last week, four of which are in the top five. Elsewhere, it was just pure chaos across the board. With that being said, here is the updated top 25:
UCLA, Texas, and Georgia Tech all did their jobs over the weekend which at least made it easy to rank the top of the list. Within last week’s top five, it was Auburn who took the big hit, getting swept by Alabama in Tuscaloosa. For that reason, they fell from #4 all the way to #12, tying #17 Arkansas for the furthest fall within the top 25. Had the Tigers looked more competitive in the Friday night match-up in which they lost by a score of 11-1, perhaps they would remain within the top ten considering they lost the final two games of the series by a combined three runs. Regardless of how good (now ranked #20) Alabama has looked, it was an inexcusable series for Auburn considering I have been the high man on them on most of my weekly updates. Some may argue that Auburn falling from #4 should give way to #5 Georgia, however, #4 Mississippi State who was ranked #6 last week, had a far more impressive series sweep at Ole Miss compared to Georgia’s home sweep of South Carolina. That was why Mississippi State took Auburn’s place rather than Georgia who stays at #5 despite a sweep of their own.
Three more previously ranked teams not named Auburn also fell out of the top ten, giving a number of teams a bump up despite the lack of a truly convincing week. #11 Virginia, #14 Oklahoma, and #17 Arkansas all were ranked within the top ten a week ago, but suffered big time losses this weekend. For Virginia, it was a series-loss to (now ranked #23) Boston College which included a 17-0 defeat. Meanwhile, Oklahoma was swept by #2 Texas on the road which included a 14-0 loss in the opener and Arkansas suffered a sweep at home against #15 Florida. With Auburn and Arkansas coming away with the worst weekends, they were the measuring sticks, both falling eight spots, so everyone else that fell were measured up against there losses, hence why Oklahoma fell seven spots. Although it was a sweep, it was on the road against the #2 team in the country, and two of the games were decided by one run.
Despite both breaking even on the week at 2-2, #6 USC and #8 Florida State both move up largely out of default due to the teams in front of them that fell, and because they at least won their conference weekends. #7 North Carolina had a perfect 4-0 weekend and remains sandwiched between USC and Florida State as all three of them climbed four spots. With North Carolina’s perfect weekend, there is certainly a case to be made for them to jump USC, but the entire body of work is still at play here and I believe USC’s pitching dominance throughout the season is still worth the edge over North Carolina in this update.
Cross-state rivals #9 Oregon State and #10 Oregon remain right next to each other for the third week in a row as each climb five spots into the top 10. Oregon State went 4-0 on the week including a mid-week win over USC, however, a single mid-week game isn’t enough to bump a team up that high over the team they beat. Oregon came away with a 4-1 week which included a two-game mid-week sweep over UC San Diego and a series win over a solid UC Santa Barbara team. Both Beaver State programs had some of the best resumes on the weekend which warrants both of their top ten debuts.
Heading down the list, a 2-2 week from a non-power-4 team would typically warrant a drop but like the other teams with 2-2 weeks that climbed, #13 Southern Miss gets to stay where they’re at. They did win their weekend series over Appalachian State, but a 12-0 loss to Mississippi State in their mid-week certainly sticks out like a sore thumb. #15 Florida is an impossible team to rank. Despite four ranked wins on the week which included a shutout of Florida State in their mid-week and a series sweep of Arkansas on the road, they only climbed four spots. According to my logic elsewhere, Florida is a team that should have climbed much higher, but the nature of their inconsistency on a week-to-week basis gave me a lot of pause when it came to bumping them up. #16 Coastal Carolina was another tough team to place because I found it hard justifying ranking them higher than a number of teams ahead of them, but had to move them up considering they went 4-0 on the week with a mid-week win on the road over Clemson. For that reason, I only managed to bump them one spot as Arkansas fell behind them.
#18 West Virginia continues climbing weekly after a 3-1 week and a series win over Arizona State while #19 Texas A&M came away with a convincing series win over Missouri. #20 Alabama is this week’s highest ranked newcomer after their sweep of Auburn. The Crimson Tide are now working on a seven-game win streak which includes sweeps over Florida and Auburn and are 6-3 in the SEC. Regardless of what they may have looked like earlier in the season, that is a recent run of success worthy of a top 25 nod. #21 Nebraska is the next newcomer with a series sweep over Indiana after finding themselves in the bubble for a few weeks. #23 Boston College is the final newcomer following their series win over Virginia. While the success of Alabama, Nebraska, and Boston College shouldn’t be glossed over, they did get some help as poor weekends from South Florida, Ole Miss, and Clemson gave way for them to make their top 25 debuts.
Filling out the rest of the list, #24 Kentucky fell one spot after going 2-2 on the week but losing their weekend series to LSU. The weekend series holds a lot more weight than the mid-week which is why you have multiple 2-2 teams that moved up while 2-2 Kentucky moves down. #22 Tennessee and #25 NC State were the other top 25 teams that got swept and fell significantly. For NC State, it was a sweep at the hands of Georgia Tech, but they remained competitive in two of the games which helped them hold on to a spot in the top 25 by a thread. For Tennessee, it was three gut-wrenching losses via walk-off at Vanderbilt. All three games were decided by one run which is why Tennessee took a six-spot fall rather than the eight spot fall their fellow SEC programs that also got swept took.
Four more teams are currently on the bubble as programs that were considered in this week’s update. Those four teams are Wake Forest, Central Florida, Cal Baptist, and Campbell. For mid-majors like Cal Baptist and Campbell, it usually takes a few more dominant weeks from within the bubble for them to finally break the top 25. Undefeated weeks or strong series wins with a mid-week win over a power-4 team is usually what it takes. For a Wake Forest or a Central Florida, it will usually just take a 3-1 week and a top 25 team to fall out of the ranking for them to find their way on.
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