Four First Round Draft Picks Crack the Mid-season Top 50 Prospect Update
With the 2025 MLB Draft now in the rear view mirror, it’s time for the top 50 prospect board to update. This is a board I created in the preseason, and didn’t plan to update until after the draft, so it’s in need of a lot of changes. Plenty of players on the board have since graduated, and a lot of prospects have played their way on to the board since. I don’t plan on doing another update to the board until the off-season, so prospects that have recently debuted in the big leagues won’t find themselves on this update due to the fact they will likely have graduated by the time the next update comes around - likely in November. With that being said, there’s a lot of open spots for breakout prospects as well as a few first round draft picks. The mid—season board has yet to be published as of now, but I’d like to breakdown a few of the newly drafted prospects that will find themselves on the updated board. You can find the current board here.
Kade Anderson, 3rd overall (SEA), #23
While he was the third overall pick, Kade Anderson will be the highest ranked 2025 draft pick on the newest update, slotting in as the 23rd ranked overall prospect. Anderson ranked second on the 2025 draft board, only behind Eli Willits, but Anderson is closer to being MLB-ready than Willits at the moment. When it comes to putting together a draft board, overall projection is more important than who is closer to MLB-ready, which is why Willits ranked first on my draft board. However, when those players hit the minor league prospect rankings, being MLB-ready begins to make a difference when it comes to ranking players. Anderson can probably slot right into a Double-A rotation and be an above-average pitcher given the polish in his arsenal and his pitch-ability. You also have to account for the fact that he was the ace on the College World Series winning team this spring and was the best pitcher in the most highly-competitive conference in amateur baseball - the SEC. He’ll come in as the fifth highest ranked pitching prospect behind Andrew Painter, Bubba Chandler, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith.
Eli Willits, 1st overall (WSH), #27
Although he was the first overall pick with some of the best upside in this class, there’s still a lot of variance in this profile due to Eli’s youth. He’s still only 17 and 1/2, making him the youngest first overall pick in draft history. Regardless of his youth, he is the most likely player to be the best from this class. His 50th percentile outcome will be better than most 75th percentile outcomes to come from the class due to his advanced tools across the board. He is going to be an above-average shortstop and base runner, and his feel to hit from both sides of the plate along with plenty of power projection makes him a must-follow prospect. Willits is a player that can easily make his way into the top ten with a quick string of success coming out of the gates upon his professional debut. There are a handful of prospects at the top of this update such as Leodalis De Vries and Jesus Made that have a similar profile to Willits and are only a year older than him with less than two full seasons of pro experience.
Ethan Holliday, 4th overall (COL), #31
Holliday was a tougher prospect to rank because there are still a few holes in the profile. A player yet to make his professional debut with some question marks is a tough call to make when placing them on a top 50. When it comes to upside, Holliday is right up there with Willits. He has the best power projection in this year’s prep class and arguably even among the college class. However, there were some concerns about his ability to hit velocity on last year’s summer circuit and there might be some tinkering that needs to be done with the approach. I’m not too concerned about the defense as he likely lands somewhere between being a slightly below-average shortstop and an above-average third baseman.
When determining if Holliday was going to make it on this update, I took a look at two prospects to come from the 2024 draft class - Konnor Griffin and Charlie Condon. Griffin went unranked on the pre-season top 50 while Condon ranked 11th. In hindsight, I still think I got the order right, but they should have been ranked closer, probably in the 20-30 range. The question mark in both profiles was the hit tool, as is the case for Holliday. Condon’s calling card was the generational power while Girffin’s was the elite combination of athleticism and physicality. Holliday comes into pro ball somewhere in between the two. If the ability to hit comes around in the same manner Giffin’s has, he can shoot right up the rankings as Griffin has done. Knowing that I should’ve ranked Griffin higher due to the fact that there was just one issue holding a dynamic profile back, I’m making that fix with Holliday. I’m also trying not to reach too far as I did with Condon because of the power alone. Condon certainly scuffled in his pro debut, exposing some of those concerns in his ability to hit (although he’s looking better this year).
Seth Hernandez, 6th overall (PIT), #36
This might be the first and only time I rank a prep right-handed pitcher in the top 50 before he even makes his professional debut. Prep right-handers are obviously the riskiest demographic in the draft and come with a lot of variance. However, Hernandez has been regarded as the best prep right-hander drafted since Hunter Greene was selected 2nd overall by the Reds in 2017. Some evaluators have even agreed he’s better than Greene was at the same point in his career. That has to be worth something. Despite the risk of a prep right-hander, the only knock on his profile is the fastball shape, and I’m not even too concerned about that considering he consistently lives in the upper-90s with it and commands it well. The ability to spin the ball is among the best while there also hasn’t been a prep pitcher with his feel for a changeup in a while. It’s also important to note that my top two ranked prospects - Andrew Painter and Bubba Chandler - are also right-handers selected from the prep class with similar upside.
