College World Series Final Preview: North Carolina vs Oklahoma
304 Division-1 college baseball programs, 29 conferences, 64 spots in the NCAA tournament, and we have finally boiled it down to two remaining teams who will battle it out on Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska. By Monday night (and potentially Sunday), a new NCAA Baseball champion will be crowned. For one team, it could be their first title in program history, and for the other, it could be their first since 1994. On Saturday night, North Carolina and Oklahoma will square off in game one of the College World Series final - here’s how each team got here.
North Carolina’s dominant season
The North Carolina Tar Heels are seeking their first national championship in program history, and their regular season including their performance over the last month in the NCAA tournament suggest this year is as good as any to get it done. This is their third appearance in the final in Omaha, and their first since they went to the final in back to back years but fell in both in 2006 and 2007.
This is a team that went 43-10-1 overall and 22-8 in the ACC before their conference tournament and the NCAA tournament. They only lost one series throughout the regular season, falling to Virginia two games to one in Chapel Hill in the first week of conference play back in early March. They also had arguably the best series win of the regular season as they took down Georgia Tech two games to one in mid-April, handing the Yellow Jackets their one and only series loss of the regular season as the top ranked team at the end of the season to drop a regular season series. Although they would fall to Georgia Tech later on in their conference tournament, they still managed to finish second in both the ACC regular season standings and the ACC tournament. The Tar Heels series loss to Virginia in March was also the only instance all year in which they dropped consecutive games, so Oklahoma certainly has a tough task in front of them in a three-game set.
As for the NCAA tournament, North Carolina is 8-1. They swept through their regional at home in Chapel Hill as the number five overall seed, taking down VCU and then East Carolina twice, outscoring their opponents by a total of 24-8. They remained in Chapel Hill for their Super Regional where they hosted USC, the third straight year in which they hosted a super regional. Last year, the Tar Heels fell to Arizona at home, winning the first game of the series, but dropping the next two. A year later, it was the Tar Heels with their backs against the wall after game one after the Trojans stole the opener by a score of 9-5. A complete game shutout from junior right-hander Jason DeCaro in game two, and a ninth inning walk-off double off the bat of junior outfielder Owen Hull led the series comeback for North Carolina as they clinched their second appearance in Omaha in the last three years. In fact, the Tar Heels are the only team to make it to Omaha twice in that span.
That brings us to Omaha where head coach Scott Forbes’s team hasn’t skipped a beat. Their side of the bracket featured the #16 overall seed West Virginia as well as Troy and Ole Miss. They opened their World Series run with Ole Miss last Friday, defeating them by a score of 6-2 behind a second consecutive gem from Jason DeCaro, and a dominant multi-inning save from the freshman phenom Caden Glauber. They moved on to face off with West Virginia in the winner’s bracket, taking them down by a score 5-2 in a game started by sophomore right-hander Ryan Lynch, but was more about the relief efforts from sophomore right-hander Walker McDuffie and once again Caden Glauber. They would face off with West Virginia once again with the Mountaineers having to beat the Tar Heels twice in order to advance to the final, but North Carolina put them away in pretty convincing fashion by a score of 12-7. They certainly flipped the script in that one as it was a lot more about the offense getting hot rather than getting another dominant performance from the pitching staff. Owen Hull and Gavin Gallaher both went 4-5 as Hull has now hit safely in all nine of North Carolina’s tournament games, five of which have been multi-hit games, while Gallaher has four multi-hit games in the tournament and has also hit safely in all nine games.
This is a team that is getting it done in every facet of the game, and they’ll be tasked with taking on the hottest team in the tournament in the Oklahoma Sooners.
Oklahoma’s unlikely journey
As for Oklahoma, they have emerged as the hottest team in Omaha with the best resume in the NCAA tournament, but this was not a team anybody forecasted to be in the position they are in right now. After an up and down regular season, the Sooners are back in the final for the second time in the last five years, and are seeking their third title in program history, and first since 1990.
The Sooners came into the 2026 season with some solid expectations that they lived up to early in the season, but they quickly fell off later in the season as they were un-ranked and barely secured a two seed for the regional round of the tournament. They went 32-21 overall in the regular season and 14-16 in the SEC, good for an 11th place finish out of 16 teams in the SEC regular season standings before dropping their one and only game in the conference tournament. Their regular season didn’t feature really any statement series wins either. Outside of a series win at home over Texas A&M in the first week of conference play, the Sooners didn’t have a series win over any other tournament team. They also lost their last four weekend series of the regular season, finishing with just four conference series wins to six losses. Performance again high-level programs in a weekend setting is typically a good indicator of success or lack thereof in the NCAA tournament considering you’re typically playing games in consecutive days and are having to stack your lineups and starting rotations in the same way.
Regardless of the fact that Oklahoma gave no one a reason to project them to advance as far as they have, head coach Skip Johnson and the rest of this Sooners team have gotten hot when it has mattered and have made one of the more dominant but improbable World Series runs we have seen in a while. It all started in Atlanta, Georgia where the Sooners were sent to play in a regional featuring Georgia Tech, the #2 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. They opened the regional with a convincing win over The Citadel, but lost big to Georgia Tech in the winner’s bracket. They defeated The Citadel again in the loser’s bracket, setting up a rematch against Georgia Tech who the Sooners would have to beat in consecutive games in order to move on to a super regional. In the first game, they found themselves down by a score of 8-2 early, but stormed back with 13 unanswered runs, winning 15-8 to force a winner-take-all game. Once again, the Sooners found themselves trailing the Jackets, and this time later than in the prior match-up as Georgia Tech was up 7-3 as late as the seventh inning. A two-run seventh and then a run in both the eighth and ninth tied the game at seven after senior right-hander Jackson Cleveland managed to hold Georgia Tech scoreless for the final three innings. He put up another scoreless frame in the top of the tenth as senior Dayton Tockey ended it with one swing in the bottom half, a moonshot beyond the center field batter’s eye, to upset the Yellow Jackets and send Oklahoma to Lawrence, Kansas where they would take on the Kansas Jayhawks.
Despite the fact that Kansas was coming off of arguably their best season in program history, and a sweep of their regional as the #15 overall seed, the Sooners managed to finish off this series in much easier fashion than the Atlanta Regional came in. The pitching staff managed to surrender a total of just three runs across the two games against one of the more high-powered offenses in the nation behind solid starts from freshmen Cord Rager and Xander Mercurius. The offense combined for 21 runs in the series, hitting a total of seven home runs as Trey Gambill and Dayton Tockey both homered in each game.
Oklahoma took down the double champs in both the ACC and the Big 12 and did it all on the road, which brings us to the College World Series where the Sooners have looked like a completely revamped team from a couple of months ago. They opened in Omaha with Alabama where the freshman Cord Rager came through yet again with a dominant performance on the mound as they rolled through the Tide, shutting them out by a score of 9-0. They were then tasked with taking on the Georgia Bulldogs, the double champs out of the SEC, in the winner’s bracket. They once again went back to the freshman well on the mound as Xander Mercurius delivered seven innings before Jackson Cleveland came through with another clutch outing out of the bullpen to defeat Georgia by a score of 4-3. Georgia found their way out of the loser’s bracket as they would have to face Oklahoma again, but have to beat them twice in order to advance to the final. While I never claimed to be certain that Georgia was going to beat Oklahoma in consecutive games, I never thought Oklahoma would turn around and just steam roll the Bulldogs in their second meeting as they did, winning by a score of 11-4. Believe it or not, it was once again a freshman on the mound for the Sooners as Nick Wesloski delivered 5.2 innings, surrendering just one earned run while juniors Jason Walk and Dasan Harris led the way with multi-home run performances at the plate.
That brings us to Saturday where the Tar Heels and the Sooners will face off, both undefeated in Omaha, playing better than they have all season, setting up for what looks like potentially a very close, high stakes final. Although these two programs are in different conferences, you don’t have to date back very far to find the last time these two programs met. In fact, Oklahoma was in North Carolina’s regional in Chapel Hill a year ago where they faced off three times with North Carolina winning two of the three games in which they played against each other, which included the regional final. Considering both rosters still have a considerable amount of players remaining from last year’s teams, they have a lot of data on each other that should come in some sort of use this weekend.
The difference-makers for each team
North Carolina: The bullpen
The pitching for the Tar Heels has been the strength of this team throughout the season, but they have really come together as a well-rounded team as the offense has really come into its own in the tournament. However, I think it’s this bullpen that has a legitimate advantage over Oklahoma. Neither bullpens are particularly deep, but the high-end talent in North Carolina’s bullpen is unlike any other.
The freshman Caden Glauber of course headlines the relief core for the Tar Heels. In 28 appearances which includes three starts, Glauber owns a 2.17 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 29.9% strikeout rate across 87 innings of work. Those 87 innings rank third on the staff as Glauber is routinely making multi-inning relief appearances, something we have seen throughout the tournament and the World Series, and something we are more than likely to see this weekend against Oklahoma. Dating back to the beginning of the tournament, the right-hander has thrown 17 innings which includes a 7.1 inning start against USC in the winner-take-all game in their super regional. Across the five tournament games he has pitched in, he has a 3.18 ERA, and has only surrendered one run across his three appearances in Omaha thus far. The most impressive stat about Glauber’s dominant freshman campaign is that the Tar Heels have won all 28 games in which Glauber has appeared in. The question surrounding Glauber heading into this final is in what role we find him in. Jason DeCaro and Ryan Lynch are the probables in the first two games of this series, but you have got to wonder if the Tar Heels would send Glauber out to start the third game if his usage in the first two games allow. I would also imagine that in a scenario in which they split the first two games, both of which are close, Glauber has thrown multiple innings in each game, which would lead me to wonder what kind of capacity he is available to contribute in during a winner-take-all finale. Regardless, Glauber is going to play a massive role in some form against Oklahoma.
Outside of Glauber, you’ve got two more arms in the pen with the ability to deliver multiple innings in relief - that being Walker McDuffie and freshman left-hander Jackson Rose. McDuffie has made 37 appearances, all out of the bullpen, which ranks tied for first in the entire nation. Across 69 total innings, he owns a 3.26 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 28.8% strikeout rate. He has only made one appearance in Omaha thus far, delivering 3.2 scoreless innings against West Virginia in their first meeting on Sunday. Jackson Rose on the other hand has made some additional starts out of the rotation, but has still primarily been a bullpen arm. In 50.1 innings across 22 appearances, Rose has a 2.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 22.8% strikeout rate, and owns the best batting average against on this North Carolina pitching staff as opposing offenses are hitting just .171 against him. In four appearances in the tournament, which includes just one in Omaha thus far, Rose has yet to allow a run across 12 innings.
Oklahoma: The bats
There hasn’t necessarily been a standout piece to this Oklahoma team throughout the season like the bullpen has been for North Carolina. However, dating back to the beginning of the tournament, the offense has really stepped up as the driver of success for this Sooners team. They have scored at least eight runs in all but two of their ten games in the tournament thus far, have put up double digits four different times, and are averaging 9.4 runs per game to North Carolina’s 6.7 runs per game. For perspective on how hot this offense has gotten compared to what they did in the regular season, the Sooners have now hit a total of 91 home runs across the entire season, 26 of which have come in the NCAA tournament alone, accounting for nearly a third of their season total while their ten games in the tournament only accounts for 15% of their season.
Despite an ankle injury in Oklahoma’s World Series opener against Alabama, junior catcher Deiten Lachance continues to be the leader of this Sooners offense. He has hit safely in all but one game in the tournament thus far, and has also added four home runs, bringing his team-leading total up to 16 on the season. Senior outfielder Trey Gambill is right behind him, also hitting safely in nine of Oklahoma’s ten tournament games with five home runs of his own. Junior outfielder Jason Walk might be the hottest hitter in this lineup at the moment as he’s working on a 12-game hit streak dating back to before the start of the tournament and has seven multi-hit games in that span. Junior outfielder Dasan Harris has hit safely in eight of Oklahoma’s ten tournament games thus far, including five multi-hit games and three home runs. Junior shortstop Jaxon Willits is 7-12 in Omaha with three multi-hit games and five across the tournament as well. Junior Brendan Brock is working on an eight-game hit streak with six multi-hit games in the tournament with three home runs. It’s a lineup that looks as deep as any offense in the nation has looked all season, and there’s isn’t really any holes to poke it in right now. While West Virginia’s lineup posed itself as a legitimate threat to North Carolina’s excellent pitching staff, it simply wasn’t on the level Oklahoma is currently on, which sets up for quite the match-up this weekend.
The X-factors for each team
North Carolina: The bats
We know North Carolina is going to pitch to an extent. They have a solid 1-2 punch between Jason DeCaro and Ryan Lynch, with Jason DeCaro giving you everything you want from an ace in the postseason. If the Tar Heels win the title, there’s no doubt that the starting rotation will have played a big part in it. However, there is a solid rotation on the other side for Oklahoma that will do its best to go toe-to-toe with North Carolina’s rotation. That’s why the bullpen is my difference-maker for North Carolina, because there is some legitimate separation in that area between these two teams. The x-factor in my opinion is the piece that will have rose to the occasion if they do in fact go on to win it all. With that being said, it’s going to have to be the bats that step up for North Carolina if they are in fact going to bring their first championship back to Chapel Hill.
While the starting rotations battle it out, the Tar Heel bats are going to have to find a way to match the Sooners bats that have been red-hot. They certainly have it in them which is why the offense is my x-factor. Owen Hull and Gavin Gallaher have led this offense throughout the postseason, but if they can see some of these other bats come up big, they are setting themselves up for success. Junior shortstop Jake Schaffner and junior first baseman Erik Paulsen have shown some flashes throughout the tournament and both have big game potential in them. Paulsen opened the tournament with four straight multi-hit games, then cooled off, but is coming off of a three hit game against West Virginia. Schaffner has hit safely in seven of North Carolina’s games but hasn’t quite lived up to the 1.018 OPS that ranks second on the team as he only has two extra-base hits in the tournament. He could certainly break out this weekend. Junior third baseman Cooper Nicholson leads the team with 16 home runs but has only hit one in the tournament thus far so he’s due for a big moment. There’s certainly a recipe for success for this Tar Heels offense, and it has worked thus far with Hull and Gallaher leading the way, but they are going to need all hands on deck considering the offense on the other side of the field shows no sign of stopping.
Oklahoma: The starting rotation
This Oklahoma starting rotation led by the freshmen has been excellent in Omaha, but it was a mixed bag throughout the season which led Skip Johnson to turn to this freshman group towards the end of the season. While they have been great in Omaha, there’s always the risk that the moment gets too big for them. It certainly hasn’t to this point. Cord Rager delivered seven shutout innings in the opener against Alabama, allowing just three hits and no walks on eight strikeouts. Across three starts in the tournament, he has allowed just three earned runs across 19 innings of work, and has surrendered just one walk. Xander Mercurius is presumably the game two starter after he threw 7.1 innings against Georgia while allowing just three earned runs with nine strikeouts. Right-hander Nick Wesloski is coming off just the second start of his college career in Oklahoma’s bracket-clinching win over Georgia in which he threw 5.2 innings while allowing one earned run after allowing just three earned runs across seven innings of work in his first ever start against The Citadel in regional play. It’s a group that has been electric in Omaha, but still a volatile group in terms of what to expect on a start to start basis considering the lack of track record to this point. Like North Carolina’s offense, there is a blueprint for success here. If the rotation comes out and pitches like it has, there’s no reason Oklahoma should be leaving Omaha without a championship trophy.
While not a starter, it’s worth mentioning junior right-hander LJ Mercurius as well. LJ is the brother of Xander and was essentially removed from the starting rotation for Xander after LJ had a hard time putting it together in a starter’s role. However, he has been excellent in a multi-inning relief role. If one of these starter’s goes out and lays an egg, I would still feel alright as an Oklahoma fan if LJ was to take over early in order to keep the offense in the game. In five appearances in the tournament thus far, LJ has surrendered just two earned runs across 15.1 innings of work on ten hits, five walks, and 14 strikeouts. He is somewhat of an x-factor himself as I foresee these bullpens battling it out at some point during this final series.
My pick to win the final
This is such an intriguing match-up to me since these two teams took completely different routes to get to this point. North Carolina has the track record and the resume of a future champion. What Oklahoma lacks in track record and regular season success, they have made up for in immense momentum. It’s one of the best pitching staffs in the nation against an offense that has performed like the best offense in the nation for a month now. It’s another pitching staff with some question marks but high-end talent against an offense with some stellar performances of its own but a lack of depth right now.
I sure hope it goes three games because I think this might be the most evenly matched final in recent memory. With that being said, I believe this series goes three games, and the Oklahoma Sooners emerge as the next champions of college baseball. This offense is showing no signs of stopping and they’ve already shown the ability to put runs on the board against some talented pitching staffs. If the bats can get to the Tar Heel arms earlier than later, North Carolina might be in a situation in which they need to turn to Caden Glauber sooner than they wanted to which is something I alluded to earlier. I just simply feel better about this Oklahoma team right now and I worry about the depth of this North Carolina team compared to the depth of Oklahoma. I have also picked against Oklahoma at every stage to this point and I’m simply done being proven wrong by the Sooners.
