Takeaways From the First Round of the MLB Draft
After all the evaluations, projections, and mock drafts, the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft has come and gone. This has been a very unique class in that there was upwards of 75+ names that had a case to be a first round pick given just how tight the class was when you got past the top tier of each demographic. Leading up to draft day, there was a wide variety of names thrown around in first round mock drafts, and it was expected that there would be some surprises even within the top ten picks.
It’s safe to say those surprises weren’t found in the top three picks as the consensus top three players landed with the top three selections, and in the order in which they were projected. Roch Cholowsky was the favorite throughout the cycle, but Grady Emerson appeared to be gaining some serious consideration with the pick leading right up to the finish line. However, after the White Sox traded for the 34th overall pick owned by the Pirates, it appeared to make more sense that the White Sox would take the safer swing with Cholowsky and spend later with the extra bonus pool money they got from that pick.
There was some buzz about the Rays going a different direction with the second overall pick, whether that would be Tyler Bell who was linked to the Rays throughout the cycle after they selected him in the second round in 2024, or Jackson Flora who popped up in rumors the night before the draft. However, the Rays stuck in the direction the consensus figured they would go, taking Grady Emerson. The Twins were very likely to take whoever was remaining among Cholowsky, Emerson, and Vahn Lackey as no other prospects had much steam here other than the top three players in the class, so Lackey to the Twins at third overall doesn’t come as much of a surprise.
The first “surprise” came at the fifth overall pick to the Pirates. I use quotations with surprise because Derek Curiel was a fringe top ten guy, so him going within roughly five picks of his projected spot isn’t that crazy. However, it really felt like Curiel’s ceiling was the eighth overall pick to the A’s given it felt like the Pirates were coming away with either Jackson Flora, Jacob Lombard, or Eric Booth Jr. The Pirates have been a team unafraid of taking a swing on a high risk, high upside player with their first round pick, and Derek Curiel is the antithesis of that type of profile. With the buzz Jacob Lombard had within the top five, it felt inevitable he was getting past the Pirates pick.
That does bring up a theme we saw in the first round - teams are really valuing bat to ball skills. It’s a shift we have started seeing at the big league level in acquisitions, and that has really trickled down to the draft as well. The Pirates, a team unafraid of fringy bat to ball skills, taking a bat to ball artist over arguably the highest upside player in this class with contact questions, should be a pretty good indicator of this. We saw Lombard slide all the way to 14th overall to the Marlins because of this, and we saw Jake Schaffner pushing all the way up to 20th overall to the Red Sox after being a consensus second to third round guy. This theme showed up all throughout the first round.
The real big surprise within the first ten picks came in the form of the Royals taking Zion Rose with the sixth overall pick. Rose did pick up some steam late in the cycle and analysts were on the record stating that Rose could go much higher than expected. I didn’t disagree with that considering Rose’s combination of tools and college performance, but I wasn’t bought into the profile enough to take him over guys like Drew Burress and Eric Booth Jr. The pick does make a little more sense when you look at their later picks which consisted of prep right hander Jack Slightom, who had some serious helium late in the cycle, getting to the Royals at the 56th overall pick which will likely be an overslot deal. There’s obviously a lot more picks on day two to allocate the savings they got from Rose to, but regardless of the financials, I’m not sure I can be talked into taking Rose over Burress specifically.
Jared Grindlinger at 12th overall to the Angels was another surprising pick in my opinion. The Angels have notoriously selected who they believe to be the fastest moving college guy available and completely flipped that strategy on its head. There certainly had to be some influence from the interim GM, John Mozeliak who took over the Angels front office just a few weeks ago. I didn’t think an interim GM was going to be able to completely overhaul a draft strategy and when Grindlinger’s name started popping up with this pick about a week ago, I didn’t buy it. I was proven wrong though as the Angels landed the hometown kid. It’s also worth noting that the Angels drafted him as an outfielder and not a two-way player. Grindlinger was the top two-way player in the draft and the expectation was that he would be able to do both at least in the lower levels of pro ball. Him being exclusively a hitter is not a done deal just because he was drafted as an outfielder, but interesting nonetheless giving the upside he has as a two-way.
Jake Schaffner going 20th overall to the Red Sox was a pretty big surprise for a few reasons. The first and obvious being that he was projected nowhere near this pick by the industry. I had him at 40th overall to the Dodgers in my last mock draft which was certainly closer to his ceiling as the consensus had the middle of the second round being his most likely landing spot. The other reason this came as a surprise was because it’s not a profile the Red Sox are typically linked to in the first round. They have taken college bats in recent years, but none close to the profile of Schaffner. The North Carolina shortstop is a hit over power bat with the potential to move off of shortstop due to his lack of arm strength, so there must be something in there very appealing to Boston outside of the savings they likely cash in on with this pick.
It didn’t take long for a team to come through with a more surprising pick than the Schaffner pick at 20th overall as the Mets took Carson Wiggins 27th overall. Despite the vast majority of players with first round consideration, Wiggins was never on my radar to be one. He missed the entirety of his season at Arkansas after undergoing Tommy John surgery a year prior. He also never started a game at the college level, only appearing in 14 total games out of the bullpen. No matter the stuff, teams are simply not taking this profile in the first round, let alone with their first pick. A healthy Carson Wiggins is definitely a first round talent which is why I don’t hate this pick for the Mets. I always appreciate a team taking a shot on a player with legitimate upside, and this is quite the shot. And like many picks in the first round, this one will save them a lot of money for later in the draft, which should come in handy given all of the highly ranked preps remaining on the board after day one.
Dodger haters look away because the final pick of the first round might be my favorite pick of the draft. They landed Bo Lowrance at 40th overall with the lowest bonus pool which makes this pick all the more interesting. I had Lowrance ranked 20th on my draft board and would have considered him even higher had I been a team drafting within the top 20 picks. He’s a massive projection play with an already silky smooth swing from the left side and a ton of power. Let’s just say he went 20th overall where I ranked him - that pick’s slot value is $4.37M. The Dodgers entire bonus pool is only worth $3.95M. The value of the 40th pick is $2.50M. I don’t think the Dodgers would waste their only pick within the top 100 on a player they weren’t sure they could sign so I’m very curious to see what dollar amount they plan on signing him to. They only have six picks within the top ten rounds, and two within the top five, one of which was the 40th overall pick, so they should be able to allocate much of their pool to Lowrance.
Arguably the biggest story concerning a player falling outside of the first round was just how far Sawyer Strosnider fell. Strosnider came into the cycle as a fringe top ten pick, and although his bat to ball skills backed up a little bit on top of his struggles with left-handed pitching, I still felt the multi-tooled game of Strosnider would still land within the top 30 picks. That was not the case as he slid all the way to 66th overall to the Brewers. Typically players sliding a bit late are considered “good value” for whatever team takes them, but at some point you really start to worry why that may be the case. That’s how I felt seeing Strosnider’s name remain on the board as long as it did. The Brewers taking him helped redeem some of that doubt considering the Brewers are one of the smartest front offices and one of the best at indentifying talent in the draft, so them being fine with taking Strosnider here might in fact end up being “good value.”
A lot of highly-ranked preps remain on the board at the end of day one which brought us through the first four rounds. Below are some of my highest-ranked players still available along with their college commitments. These players remain on the board not because of their talent but rather the cost of getting them to pro ball and away from their college commitments. Although they may get drafted in later rounds, they are going to make first to third round money if they do in fact sign.
That is it from me as far as first round story lines go. Make sure to subscribe below to be notified of more post-draft coverage!
