MLB Mock Draft 4.0
Welcome to draft day! It’s been a lot of fun analyzing this class for the better half of four months now, and the big day is finally here. This is my fourth edition of the mock (you can find my most recent one here). Nothing has changed on the field as there hasn’t been any baseball played since the conclusion of the College World Series (for the top prospects), but draft boards have continued to shuffle so there has still been some movement on my mock since the last one. You can also access my top 50 draft board here to get some more in depth breakdowns on a number of these players.
1. Washington Nationals - Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Previous mock: Kade Anderson
The firing of Nationals GM Mike Rizzo a week out from the draft has been the biggest story of the cycle and has made predicting the Nationals pick that much more difficult. With the change in regime this late, it makes the most sense that they go with the safest option here which has become Kade Anderson. He’ll probably be cheaper than Ethan Holliday and Eli Willits who seem to be the other likely candidates to land here.
2. Los Angeles Angels - Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Previous mock: Jamie Arnold
With Jamie Arnold slipping towards the back half of the top ten due to some questions concerning the arsenal, Doyle seems to be the best fit within the Angels recent draft strategy. They’ll likely target the player that can move through the system fastest, so if the Nats pick one of the preps, expect them to take Anderson here.
3. Seattle Mariners - Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Previous mock: Eli Willits
The Mariners are no strangers to up-the-middle preps and Willits could be the best of the demographic they’ve selected in recent memory. They also have the second highest bonus pool in the draft, so there might not be an emphasis on getting a discount here. Similar to the Nats pick, this is a pick that can still go a number of directions such as Seth Hernandez, Aiva Arquette, Jamie Arnold, or even Anderson if he’s still unselected.
4. Colorado Rockies - Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Previous mock: Ethan Holliday
The expectation is that Holliday lands here with the Rockies if he doesn’t go number one overall. This is where I’ve mocked him for the entirety of the cycle so I’m pretty confident this is the outcome if Anderson goes first overall.
5. St. Louis Cardinals - Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Previous mock: Liam Doyle
It seems like there’s growing interest between Arnold and the Cardinals as he has moved outside of the favorites to go first overall. The Cardinals have gotten some solid returns from their selections from the college pitcher demographic, so I would imagine they have their eyes on whichever one from the top tier falls here at fifth overall.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - Billy Carlson, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Previous mock: Billy Carlson
As I’ve done with Ethan Holliday and the Rockies, I’ve mocked Carlson to the Pirates for the entirety of the cycle. It makes too much sense with the early returns they’ve gotten from Konnor Griffin considering Carlson possesses a similar profile. Much of the industry thinks this is the play for the Pirates as well.
7. Miami Marlins - Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Previous mock: Jojo Parker
Parker is a name that just continues to pop up with this pick as he has flown up boards throughout the year. The consensus seems to believe they’re going with a bat, so Aiva Arquette is certainly in play here as well.
8. Toronto Blue Jays - Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Previous mock: Kyson Witherspoon
Kyson Witherspoon has been a name linked to this pick for a long time, but it’s also tough seeing Hernandez fall much further. The Blue Jays have gotten some early returns from the college arms they selected early last year, but Hernandez’s upside will be tough to pass up. I mocked him as low as 12th to the Rangers a few weeks ago, but I’m realizing that’s more of an extreme scenario than I thought given the industry views Hernandez as the best prep right hander since Hunter Greene in 2017.
9. Cincinnati Reds - Ike Irish, OF, Auburn
Previous mock: Steele Hall
It seems like the Reds are leaning towards a bat they can under-slot. Irish is name that sticks out in that scenario while it’s still possible they pull from the deep prep bat class with either Steele Hall or Kayson Cunningham.
10. Chicago White Sox - Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Previous mock: Aiva Arquette
In most scenarios in my mind, Witherspoon doesn’t fall outside of the top ten. The arsenal and pitch-mix are too polished, and I personally would consider him with a top three pick. The White Sox have also done well with arms, so Witherspoon might stick out to them in this scenario as the final upper-tier arm available.
11. Athletics - Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Previous mock: Ike Irish
Between Kick Kurtz last year and Jacob Wilson in 2023, the Athletics have arguably had the most success of any organization with college bats in the first round. One of either Ike Irish of Aiva Arquette should be available here, and in this scenario it’s Arquette. If both are unavailable, they could turn to Wehiwa Aloy, Marek Houston, or Brendan Summerhill. This also should be the floor for Arquette.
12. Texas Rangers - Kayson Cunningham, SS/2B, Johnson HS (TX)
Previous mock: Seth Hernandez
The industry believes the Rangers are tied to a prep bat here, and Cunningham headlines the current available options. The advanced hit tool stands out as the separator between him, Steele Hall, and Daniel Pierce, but those two names could be in play here as well.
13. San Francisco Giants - Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Previous mock: Wehiwa Aloy
The Giants have one of the smallest bonus pools in this draft despite drafting in the front half of the first round, so they could be looking for the player that offers them the biggest haircut here. Gage Wood stands out as an option in this scenario as he’s still a fringe top-15 guy because of the concerns surrounding his shoulder health.
14. Tampa Bay Rays - Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Previous mock: Kayson Cunningham
Because of the depth of the prep shortstop group this year, the understanding continues to be that the Rays pull from there. Hall continues to pop up with this pick as he has done so for most of this cycle. Daniel Pierce seems like the only other option here if Hall and Cunningham are off the board.
15. Boston Red Sox - Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oaks HS (CA)
Previous mock: Daniel Pierce
A number of bats have been linked to the Red Sox throughout the cycle and Fien seems to be the only prep with interest. Given the success Boston has found with some prep bats they’ve taken in recent years, Fien very well may be at the top of their board at this point.
16. Minnesota Twins - Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Previous mock: Gavin Fien
It looks like the Twins are leaning towards a college bat, and while there will be multiple options that will make sense, Aloy is arguably the best player of the bunch. He draws some similarities to Kaelen Culpepper who the Twins selected in the first round last year. This could be the floor for Ike Irish as it sounds like there has been some interest here.
17. Chicago Cubs - Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Previous mock: Gavin Kilen
The strength of this point in the draft is the college bats, and the Cubs are another team linked to a number of them. They’ve gotten great returns from each of their last two first rounders, both of which came from the same demographic. In this scenario, Houston is the best option available.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks - Slater De Brun, OF, Summit HS (OR)
Previous mock: Brendan Summerhill
The Diamondbacks love their athletic outfielders. Brendan Summerhill would of course be the other favorite to land here, but De Brun offers a lot more upside. It’s a possibility they could end up with both as they also have the 29th pick and replicate what they did last year with Slade Caldwell and Ryan Waldschmidt.
19. Baltimore Orioles - Jace Laviolette, OF, Texas A&M
Previous mock: Marek Houston
The Orioles recently added yet another first round pick with their trade of Bryan Baker to the Rays, so they now have four first round picks. With that being said, they have even more flexibility to take a home run swing, so there’s not nearly as much risk in taking Laviolette here. He also fits what the Orioles value - big left-handed power and high OBP.
20. Milwaukee Brewers - Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Previous mock: Slater De Brun
This is close to Pierce’s floor and he fits the toolsy, up-the-middle profile the Brewers have typically targeted. If they’re looking to surprise in the same way they did last year with Braylon Payne and go well under-slot, some names like Ryan Mitchell and Jaden Fauske could be in play here.
21. Houston Astros - Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee
Previous mock: Jace Laviolette
It seems like the Astros are in the market for another college bat, and Kilen would be the best available option in this scenario. Kilen’s market is right in this range as well.
22. Atlanta Braves - Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Previous mock: Tyler Bremner
The Braves have leaned heavily on arms in recent drafts, and Bremner is a name that has recently popped up with this pick. There’s also not really any other prep arms in play yet, aside from potentially Kruz Schoolcraft, so Bremner makes the most sense here if they’re looking to take yet another arm.
23. Kansas City Royals - Josh Hammond, 3B, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Previous mock: Devin Taylor
Hammond has been linked to this pick for a bit, so he could definitely land here if he’s still available. This sounds like the start of Kruz Schoolcraft’s market as well, so it’s likely they end up with one of the two.
24. Detroit Tigers - Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
Previous mock: Sean Gamble
If the last two years have shown us anything, it’s that the Tigers love their left-handed hitting, hit over power preps. Jordan Yost and Sean Gamble are the top two options available from that demographic in this scenario. Yost is younger than Gamble, is more likely to stay on the dirt, and likely provides a bigger haircut.
25. San Diego Padres - Nick Becker, SS, Don Bosco Prep HS (NJ)
Previous mock: Landon Harmon
It’s no secret that the Padres are taking a prep, but with one of the lowest bonus pools this year, they’re likely going to have to under-slot someone. Along with Becker, Ryan Mitchell, Quentin Young, and Tate Southisene could be options here. If they want to dip into the risky prep right hander demographic, Landon Harmon and Matthew Fisher are likely available here as potential under-slot options as well.
26. Philadelphia Phillies - Sean Gamble, IMG Academy (FL)
Previous mock: Nick Becker
The Phillies enjoy their toolsy, up-the-middle preps and Gamble stands out as the best option here if they aren’t looking for an under-slot.
27. Cleveland Guardians - Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Previous mock: Kruz Schoolcraft
This is the last pick before the PPI and comp rounds, and I have a hard time seeing Schoolcraft fall to that point in the draft. With him transitioning to pitching full-time, I would imagine the Guardians feel good about what they can get out of him in their pitching lab.
38 (CB-A). New York Mets - Cam Cannarella, OF Clemson
Previous mock: Cam Cannarella
It’s tough to forecast what the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers do with their first picks considering their selections are so late and they have the smallest bonus pools. College prospects they can get at a discount seem like the play here, so I still see the Mets landing Cannarella if he’s on the board. Some more college bats that could be options here are Charles Davalan, Dean Curley, and Ethan Petry.
39 (CB-A). New York Yankees - AJ Russell, RHP, Tennessee
Previous mock: AJ Russell
I still think the Yankees end up with another college arm here, and Russell provides the most upside of the current tier that is available in this scenario. Draws some similarities to Ben Hess, their first round selections last year, as well.
40 (CB-A). Los Angeles Dodgers - Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
Previous mock: Lucas Franco
The top available up-the-middle prep that can come at a discount is the likely play here, and Kilby stands out as a name that fits in this scenario. Tate Southisene, Brady Ebel, and Brock Sell are possible names here as well.
